★★★ Midterms · November 3, 2026 ★★★
Thinking about sitting this one out?
A lot of Republicans are. Before you decide, look at what the border numbers did.
In December 2023, the U.S. Border Patrol and port officers recorded 301,981 encounters at the southwest border. In one month.
The southwest border, month by month
Then the line fell off a cliff.
Every bar is one month of CBP's own count. The gray bars run from October 2020 to January 2025. The red bars start in February 2025, the first full month after the inauguration.
Southwest land border encounters (Border Patrol apprehensions plus port-of-entry inadmissibles and Title 42 expulsions), by month. Source: U.S. Customs and Border Protection, Nationwide Encounters data files.
The lowest month from October 2020 through January 2025 was 61,445 (Jan 2025). Since February 2025, no month has gone above 13,542.
One month vs. nineteen
Add up every month since February 2025. December 2023 alone is still bigger.
Sum of 19 monthly southwest border totals, February 2025 through August 2026, vs. the single month of December 2023. Source: CBP Nationwide Encounters.
Families and children
Families and children nearly stopped arriving.
Compare the last full fiscal year before the inauguration with the current one, which is one month short.
Family-unit encounters
Unaccompanied children
Southwest border encounters by CBP demographic group ("FMUA" = individuals in family units; "UC/UAC" = unaccompanied children). FY2024 = Oct 2023–Sep 2024. FY2026 = Oct 2025–Aug 2026. Source: CBP Nationwide Encounters.
What changed
It didn't happen by accident.
The drop starts the month the policies changed. Three actions signed on the first day:
- Jan 20, 2025National emergency declared at the southern border.
- Jan 20, 2025"Securing Our Borders" order: resume Remain in Mexico, end catch-and-release, build physical barriers.
- Jan 20, 2025The U.S. Refugee Admissions Program suspended pending review.
- Feb 2025 – Aug 202619 straight months between 7,822 and 13,542 encounters.
The longer story
For 35 years the share kept climbing.
The share of U.S. residents born abroad rose from 7.9% in 1990 to 14.1% in 2020–24. The border numbers above show the first sharp break in the flow behind that line.
Foreign-born share of U.S. residents. 1990 and 2000: decennial census. 2009 onward: American Community Survey 5-year estimates, summed across all 3,144 counties. Census Bureau data, computed from bulk files.
Executive orders can be undone.
The border numbers changed because of executive action. This Congress followed through: it ended food-stamp eligibility for refugees and asylees in July 2025, ended their federal Medicaid eligibility as of October 1, and cut refugee funding 18% for 2026.
The White House asked for deeper cuts. Getting them takes more Republican votes, not fewer. That's on the ballot.
If you're tired, disappointed, or sure it's already won — vote anyway.
Where people settled
Foreign-born share and growth in every U.S. county since 1990, by country of birth, with sourced notes on 116 of the biggest jumps.
NGO explorerWho was paid to resettle them
The federally funded resettlement network: national agencies, local affiliates, ORR providers and their funders, with every link sourced.
Sources & method
- Border numbers: CBP Nationwide Encounters data files (FY21–24, FY22–25 and FY23–26 releases), Southwest Land Border rows only, summed by month and demographic.
- Foreign-born share: Census 1990 and 2000 long-form sample; ACS 5-year table B05002, 2005–09 through 2020–24.
- Policy actions: White House and Federal Register texts.
- Every number on this page is listed with its source file in the project's facts ledger.